Global forecasts indicate that by 2050, the combined effect of demographic changes (~ 2.5 billion additional people), increased wealth and changes in diet can increase global food demand of 80 to 110%. In addition, growing demand for biofuels may limit the availability of land for agriculture. It is widely expected that a significant portion of this new demand is provided by Brazil, one of the few places on earth with plenty of sun, water and land to allow for a major expansion in agriculture. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization predicts that agricultural production in Brazil will grow faster than any other country in the world in this decade, increasing by 40% by 2019.
We therefore have a window of opportunity - probably closing in 2020 - to propose new ways, scientifically sound, sustainable increases in agricultural production in the Amazon. Such strategies, if successfully implemented, have the potential to promote and maintain low or even near zero levels of deforestation in the region for decades to come.
The long-term vision of this research is to generate knowledge to enable sustainable increases in agricultural production in Brazil to meet the global demands of consumption, at the same time that (i) maintain and improve the ability of the environment to conserve biodiversity and maintain essential ecosystem services such as climate regulation and regional carbon stock, and (ii) minimizing environmental impacts of agricultural activities.
In the coming years, we will investigate aspects of large-scale viability of sustainable agriculture in Brazil. We aim to identifing opportunities to increase sustainable agricultural production in the Amazon and Cerrado, categorizing and quantifing the potential impact of continued deforestation of the Amazon in regional climate stability, ecosystem services and conservation efforts. We do this by combining the construction of new databases with simulations of climate and agricultural productivity using climate models and a set of agro-meteorological models of different complexities.